Two-Speed European Monetary Union as an Alternative to Maastricht?

Diploma Thesis 22 Feb 94 to 19 Apr 94 with Professor-Dr.-Oliver Landmann



The way to a uniform European currency is long, thorny and with obstacles scattered. It is broad in some places, at others should it after the will of the market users be very narrow. This way they began the march on 12 March 1979 with the establishment of the European monetary system (EMS). in the meantime are 12 wanderer on the way. But the course comes again and again into coming to a hold. That was so at the 17.September 1992 with the withdrawal of England and Italy from that EMS, and last at the 1.August 1993 by the extension of the fluctuation margins. For some observers an abyss opened itself on this day, and the way aborted suddenly. But the target still is in view; it is called after the will on 8.-10 December 1991 of the European currency uniform in Maastricht met state and heads of the government of the European communities, which carries the work title ECU. Since the passed summer the question forces itself upon however ever more clearly whether this target can together be achieved still by all 12 (or soon 16) European European Union states involved.

One of the discussed alternatives would be a currency integration in two rates. This term, which requires an assertion, which takes place in this work gradually, meant shortened formulated that first a core of countries decides to a common currency and the appropriate institutions and the other states follow later. As work basis it can be gone out here with it that with this " core " the countries are meant, those at the end of the " European currency network ", which predecessors EMS, this belonged, thus Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and Luxembourg, and in addition to it still France. That corresponds also to the Membermember members up to 31.12.1972. In some historical statistics also the EG7-Union is called core, thus the six mentioned above countries and Ireland.

Also in the Maastricht contract (art. 109j Abs.4) a similar methodology is planned. Logically for instance the Federal Bank proceeds implicitly from such a development, if it already makes itself in a monthly report appeared recently to it, to define the technical details of a currency integration in two rates: " those union states, which join the output stage only later, do not remain however up to then excluded from monetary co-operation. Their central banks are members in the European system of the central banks (...) thereby (...) a minimum of co-operation are guaranteed (...) ".

This conception is generally regarded however in the economiceconomics literature as unrealistic. It is assumed that from political reasons no European Union country will be excluded from the monetary union. Because with all pro and cons of theoretical currency models it may not be forgotten that an important constituent of the European Economic Community and today the EU were and are the agricultural policy, on which varying rates of exchange engraving effects has. A new exchange rate system would have thus always also effects on the core of the EU themselves.

Structure of the work

In order to support the probability of speculative attacks against this thesis (diploma) too veringern, was tried, the current suggestions on the European currency integration with historically secured sources.

First some notes are made, which concern the special difficulties during the evaluation of the literature. After a short view of history and theories of the monetary systems an argument with the term " currency integration in two rates " follows in the main part. Reference taken to individual countries of the EU, in order to examine whether they would be to be found in Europe of the two rates in hard hart-oder the group of soft currencies. Subsequently, practical problems are represented and in the public expressed fears of the European currency integration regarding efficient and rate-optimal solutions. In a conclusion a view is given to a European currency on the prospects.

The nationality problem

To turn out during the literature search ever more clearly that the available topic area saves the danger, to rather unique national coined/shaped " Propaganda" literature. Unfortunately are not protected recognized scientists to see this topic by the national eyeglasses and not to even indicate this unique.

Thus it results for instance in an essay written obviously by Italians " purely coincidentally " on the basis of a " purely formal model " that the combination inflation/occupation in a GrandpaGrandpa Grandpa, preferred by Italy, was selected, on democratic majority decisions been based. " If the five countries decide, by majority vote which b should adopted, b 3 would prevail. This is the b preferred by the median country (i.e. Italy), and is into the feasible set. " This example is however purely arbitrarily selected and is to express no anti-Italian chauvinistism. The author of this work found a German source, which would suggest a European compromise settlement, just as few which for instance the independence of the central bank in question placed. *** TRANSLATION ENDS HERE ***

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